Oscars Predictions – 02/28/2016

It’s an hour before the Oscars starts, and I’m typing this from my phone, so let’s keep this short and sweet. I’m going to come back and update later with my score!

Best Picture:

Who I want to win – Mad Max. The only three I saw last year were The Revenant, The Martian, and Mad Max. I loved all three, and it’s hard to choose between them. The Revenant is close for me, but Mad Max is a genre film with a strong female protagonist in Furiosa with an amazingly simple but satisfactory plot and terrific cinematography and stunts. It would be a very different sort of film for the academy to award.

My prediction – The Revenant. It wouldn’t surprise me if I goes to Spotlight though.

Actual Winner – Spotlight (MAN! I should have gone with my gut on this one!)
Best Director:

Who I want to win – Alejandro G. Inarritu.

My prediction – Alejandro G. Inarritu.

Actual Winner – Alejandro G. Inarritu.
Lead Actor:

Who I want to win – Leonardo DiCaprio. I thought he acted very well, and I didn’t see most of the others to compare, but more than that we can finally put the whole Leo-never-wins thing behind us.

My prediction – Leonardo DiCaprio

Actual Winner – Leonardo DiCaprio (Yeah, this was practically a guarantee)
Lead Actress:

Who I want to win – no opinion (I didn’t see any of these films)

My prediction – Brie Larson.

Actual Winner – Brie Larson.
Supporting Actor:

Who I want to win – Sylvester Stallone. Nice comeback role and his best acting in forever.

My prediction – Sylvester Stallone

Actual Winner – Mark Rylance – WHAAAAAAAAT? O.o Completely blindsided here.
Supporting Actress:

Who I want to win – No Opinion (Didn’t See the Films)

My prediction – Rachel McAdams (they might give Spotlight a nod here.)

Actual Winner – Alicia Vikander (Turns out the nod to spotlight was a liiiiiittle off in terms of category. O.o )
Animated feature:

Who I want to win – Inside Out. Great film. One of Pixars best, in my opinion.

My prediction – Inside Out (come on, this is a freaking lock)

Actual Winner – Inside Out (Deservedly so. This film gets some retroactive flack by some people for some reason. It was a great film!)
Cinematography:

Who I want to win – The Revenant. I was incredibly impressed by the beauty of the cinematography in this film combined with the difficulty of the process they used to make it. Completely deserved.

My prediction – The Revenant

Actual Winner – The Revenant
There are plenty of others but these are the ones I’m predicting tonight.

See you guys later!

2011 Oscar Predictions


I pondered writing about a variety of topics for this post, but I decided to go simple and just talk Oscars. Before we get into the meat of the post, if you need a handy guide to who has been nominated this year for each category, feel free to go to this link. I won’t be listing all of them off, so I thought you should have the list available. So let’s get started!


BEST PICTURE
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“Inception”
“The Kids Are All Right ”
“The King’s Speech”
“127 Hours”
“The Social Network”
“Toy Story 3″
“True Grit”
“Winter’s Bone”

I’m not the first, nor the last, to say that any film who’s director wasn’t also nominated has a steep hill to climb. That’s merely historical precedent talking. So most of the films on here don’t have a chance, including Winter’s Bone, 127 Hours, The Kids Are All Right, Toy Story 3 and Inception (which is a major snub if I may say so! Christopher Nolan deserved a nomination at least!)

I think The Fighter doesn’t really have a shot here. It simply wasn’t big enough among the contenders. True Grit is a western done right, by all accounts, and Hollywood hasn’t seen that in a long time not to mention the genre is in its wheelhouse. But it’s a re-done John Wayne movie, which is blasphemy to some, not to mention a Cohen Brothers film not too unlike their previous film, so I think they’ll skip it this year. Black Swan is an outside contender who might dance its way past the heavier hitters if the vote is split enough ways, but it is a strange film. I don’t see it going all the way.

That leaves The King’s Speech and The Social Network. Both films are opposite of one another. The Social Network is relevant as a snapshot of today’s culture, not to mention extremely well done in all respects. The King’s Speech is also supposedly well done and is receiving a sort of warm ground-swell of support, not to mention it is more in line with the Academy’s tastes historically. This is the fight to watch.

Who will win: The Social Network. The Academy wants to stay relevant itself, and a good way to start doing it is to start evolving to the times. Awarding this film will do that, at least in their own eyes.

Who Should Win: The Social Network. It is true that as a snapshot of modern culture, only Scott Pilgrim was anywhere near the modern cultural relevance and pathos of The Social Network. The appropriateness of the film for today’s audience is impeccable.

Who I want to win: Inception. I can’t help it, I’m a nerd. I’ve already said why I liked it in My Review. My second pick would have probably been Scott Pilgrim (which isn’t on the list for obvious reasons) or Toy Story 3. That trio make up my favorite films of the year.

David Fincher


BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky for “Black Swan”
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen for “True Grit”
David Fincher for “The Social Network”
Tom Hooper for “The King’s Speech”
David O. Russell for “The Fighter”

I feel that the list of directors is going to fall in almost the same fashion as my prediction for the Best Film category. Aronofsky is skilled but too out-there. The Cohen Brothers have already won for this type of thing, and Russell doesn’t really have a shot amongst the big hitters. Hooper made a great film with The King’s Speech, but in the end his obscurity and the Academy’s likely pick of The Social Network will give this to Fincher.

I think it is an utter shame that Nolan didn’t get nominated in this category. I really believe that he was pick number 6, and just got squeezed out by directors the Academy thought were a little more “classy” or what have you. I would have replaced either Russell or the Cohen Brothers, and of the two I’d definitely drop Russell.

Who will win: Fincher

Who should win: Fincher

Who I want to win: Christopher Nolan (dagnabbit!)


BEST ACTOR
Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
James Franco in “127 Hours”
Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech”

Both Eisenberg and Franco are not anywhere near the real running. Franco is a nod to 127 Hours, which won’t get an award otherwise, and Eisenberg is here because you can’t have a Best Film of the year without nominating those involved in other categories (right? Oh, wait… sorry Nolan). Still, neither one have a real shot. Bridges got the award last year, and as much as I think the Academy will give True Grit a nod with an award somewhere, it isn’t here. Bardem might have a shot, but I don’t think it is half a chance in the face of Colin Firth’s performance. Besides, awarding Firth here is a perfect way to award The King’s Speech which won’t win Best Film.

Who will win: Firth

Who should win: Firth

Who I want to win: Bridges. – Hey, man, he was the best actor in Tron: Legacy by a long shot. Everything I hear about him in True Grit movie says he deserves it too.


BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter’s Bone”
Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”

I really don’t see how this could be anyone other than Portman. It’s an easy way to award Black Swan and she’s the darling of Hollywood for the moment. And you know, she kinda deserves it too..

Who will win: Portman

Who should win: Portman

Who I want to win: Olivia Wilde-I’M KIDDING! (Katie I’m really kidding!) I didn’t see any of these movies, so I’d give it to Mary Elizabeth Winstead for her role in Scott Pilgrim (Hey, I loved that film, alright? Though she might be more supporting than lead in that film. Yeah. Okay then, no opinion.)

Christian Bale's Method acting; He creepified himself for the role.


SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
John Hawkes in “Winter’s Bone”
Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush in “The King’s Speech”
While this could easily go to Rush, I think it’s a tad more likely that it’s going to Bale; Partially because he’s a great actor and probably did a great job, but also because the Academy will want to give a nod to The Fighter somewhere.


SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter in “The King’s Speech”
Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”
Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”

I have little to go on in this category, but I’d say that any votes that go to the ladies from The Fighter will be split amongst themselves, and that’s if the Academy didn’t give the award to Bale for best supporting actor (which they will.) I think this is going to Steinfeld, partially because from what I hear her “supporting” role was practically a leading role and because the Academy wants to give True Grit some love somewhere.

Who will win: Steinfeld

Who should win: Steinfeld

Who I want to win: Truly? No opinion. If you say Mary Elizabeth Winstead is a supporting actress in Scott Pilgrim, then her, otherwise I have no idea.

Okay, now that the big awards are out of the way let’s do a quick rundown of the rest of them.

Foreign Language Film: No Idea, but if Bardem can make it into the Best Actor category, I’d say that Biutiful has the best shot.
Best film Editing: The Social Network.
Best Documentary: Even less of an idea than Foreign Language, so I’ll just say… Waste Land.

Best Animated Feature Film: Though I have a soft spot in my heart for How to Train Your Dragon, it has to be Toy Story 3.
Best Visual Effects: Inception.
Best Original Song: “Coming Home”

Best Original Score: Inception (Though, from what I hear The Social Network has a fantastic score)
Best Cinematography: Inception (It had better win for the hallway fight alone).

Best Sound Mixing: Inception
Best Sound Editing: Inception
Best Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland
Best Art Direction: Alice in Wonderland (It should be Harry Potter, dagnabbit. I like where they’ve taken the series’ visual feel.)

Best Makeup: The Wolfman (I only say this because I actually liked the film and would like to see it recognized for something.)
Short Film (Animated): The Lost Thing (Again, this is me being a fan-boy rooting for the nerd-team.)
Short Film: No Idea. Uh…. Na Wewe?
Writing (Adapted Screenplay): The Social Network (Though you might see 127 Hours squeak out a victory here.)
Writing (Original Screenplay): Inception

That’s all I’m taking about today, folks. I might get around to talking about my opinions on Handheld gaming, now that Sony’s revealed its “Next Generation Portable” but if I do, it’ll be in a few days at least. I’ve also got to consider the possibilities of adding some new players to D&D nights, as two people have expressed interest. We shall see, eh?

I’m out!

– Edward L. Cheever II